How We Measured Difficulty#
For every possible answer, we walked our solver's precomputed decision tree — the same optimal strategy the solver plays — starting from the opener 48-32=16, and counted how many guesses it took to finish. This is optimal-play difficulty: no lucky stabs, no mistakes, just the best move at every turn. Your own guess counts will run higher, but the ranking of hard versus easy holds.
The Difficulty Distribution#
| Guesses needed | Answers | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2 | 1,553 | 8.8% |
| 3 | 13,791 | 77.8% |
| 4 | 2,376 | 13.4% |
| 5 | 2 | 0.0% |
A few things jump out. Exactly one answer takes a single guess — the opener itself. More than three quarters of all games end in exactly 3 guesses under optimal play, and the average is 3.05. The game allows 6 guesses; optimal play never needs more than 5. And the 5-guess club has just 2 members out of 17,723 — about 0.011% of all answers.
The 2 Hardest Answers, With Their Optimal Paths#
Here is optimal play against each of them, colored exactly as the game would score it:
19-2-8=9 — 5 guesses even when played perfectly
33+10=43 — 5 guesses even when played perfectly
Notice the probes: against 19-2-8=9, optimal play even spends guess four on 10-2-8=0 — an equation with a lone zero that can never be a real answer, played purely to separate the last few candidates.
What Makes an Answer Hard#
The hard answers share a signature: repeated characters. Across all answers, 81% contain at least one repeat and the average answer uses 6.82 distinct characters; the 2 hardest all contain repeats, averaging just 6 distinct characters. Repeats hurt because every duplicated character answers a question the solver already asked — the same reason repeat-heavy openers score terribly.
They also live in crowded neighborhoods. 33+10=43 sits among dozens of two-digit additions with interchangeable digits (30+13=43 is a near-twin that even shares its result), so each guess eliminates only a handful of look-alikes. If you want to survive these, the second-guess guide shows how optimal play splits crowded fields early.
Frequently Asked Questions#
What is the hardest Nerdle answer?
Under optimal play from the best opener (48-32=16), exactly 2 answers require 5 guesses: 19-2-8=9 and 33+10=43. Every other answer falls in 4 or fewer.
How many guesses does the average Nerdle take?
With optimal play, the average across all 17,723 answers is 3.05 guesses, and 77.8% of answers take exactly 3. Real players average more, since human play isn't optimal.
Can a Nerdle puzzle be unsolvable in 6 guesses?
No. Optimal play never needs more than 5 guesses for any of the 17,723 possible answers, a guess to spare against the game's limit of 6.
Why are equations with repeated digits harder?
A repeated character gives you less information per tile: the second copy re-tests something you partially know instead of probing something new. The hardest answers all contain repeats and use fewer distinct characters than average.
Challenge a friend
Only 2 of 17,723 Nerdle equations need five optimal guesses. Try one.
Think You'd Survive Them?
Practice on unlimited puzzles with real-time hints, or let the solver show you optimal play move by move.