Why There Is No Single Best Second Guess#
Your first guess should always be the same — our model's best opener is 48-32=16 (see the strategy guide for why). But the best second guess depends entirely on the colors you get back. Across all 17,723 possible answers, 48-32=16 produces 1,689 distinct feedback patterns, and each one calls for a different reply.
That's actually great news. It means the opener is doing its job: on average only about 10.5 answers share your exact pattern. Played optimally from there, our decision tree finishes in 3.05 guesses on average and never needs more than 5 — comfortably inside Nerdle's six.
How to Read the Patterns#
Each row below shows the opener colored with one feedback pattern. Match it to what you see on your board: green means right character in the right spot, purple means wrong spot, black means not in the answer. (New to the colors? Start with how to play Nerdle.)
Some optimal second guesses will look strange — equations like 2*14/7=4 that feel like odd choices. They're probe guesses: the tree isn't trying to be right on guess two, it's trying to slice the remaining candidates so thin that guess three is nearly automatic.
Optimal Second Guesses for the Most Common Patterns#
The 12 most frequent feedback patterns after opening with 48-32=16, and the reply our decision tree plays for each. With 1,689 total branches no table can cover every game — for your exact position, the solver walks the full tree.
The Principles Behind a Good Second Guess#
Can't memorize a lookup table? The tree's choices follow patterns you can apply yourself:
Use fresh characters
Almost every optimal second guess introduces digits the opener didn't test. Repeating a black character wastes a slot that could be gathering information.
Relocate every purple
Purples are guaranteed content in unknown positions. The tree always moves them to new slots, testing a second position while keeping them on the board.
Don't rush to "win"
A guess that merely could be right usually tests less than a probe built to split the field. The tree happily plays equations it knows are wrong when they buy more information.
Pin the equals sign
If = came back purple, the second guess almost always tries it in a different legal position (5, 6, or 7). Locking the equation's shape collapses the field fast.
Frequently Asked Questions#
What is the best second guess in Nerdle?
There is no single best second guess — it depends on the feedback from your opener. After 48-32=16, there are 1,689 possible feedback patterns, each with its own optimal reply. For the most common pattern, the optimal second guess is 19+13=32.
Should my second guess reuse letters from the first?
Reuse purples (in new positions) and greens (in place, or deliberately moved in a probe), but avoid re-playing black characters. Optimal second guesses mostly introduce fresh digits to maximize new information.
Can every Nerdle be solved in 6 guesses?
Yes — with optimal play it never even gets close. Our decision tree solves all 17,723 possible answers in at most 5 guesses, averaging 3.05.
Is it worth guessing an equation that can't be the answer?
Often, yes. A 'probe' guess that deliberately can't win can split the remaining candidates far more evenly than any possible answer, setting up a guaranteed solve on the next guess. Optimal play uses probes regularly.
Your Exact Position, Solved
Enter your guesses and colors, and the solver plays the full decision tree for you — all 1,689 branches, not just the top 12.