NerdleBuddy

Data-backed Nerdle strategy

Nerdle Strategy Guide

Start with a strong equation, use the tile feedback deliberately, and know when an information-first guess is worth the turn. Every topic below is backed by NerdleBuddy’s 17,723 generated candidate answer forms — read the quick tips here, then go deep in the sub-guides.

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Quick Start Tips#

  1. 1Start with 52-34=18 — It ranks first in our opener ranking at an unrounded 2.9834 expected guesses under real Nerdle rules (a rearranged form of the answer also wins). See the full opener rankings for why, and what the runners-up have in common. The practical difference among the leaders is tiny; choose the one you can enter reliably.
  2. 2Make your second guess earn new information — Don’t rush to reuse what you know. Test fresh digits and operators, and move any purple characters to new positions (we computed the best second guess for every possible first-guess result).
  3. 3Trust purple tiles — A character in the wrong position is still valuable information. It tells you both what IS in the answer and where it ISN’T. New to the tile colours? How to Play Nerdle covers them with worked examples.
  4. 4Remember: = is always there — Every equation has exactly one equals sign, and its position tells you the answer’s whole structure. If you know where it isn’t, you narrow down where it must be.

Or skip the manual work: use our solver — after your first guess, enter the feedback and get the model-recommended next move (here’s how it works).

Best Starting Equations#

We ranked all 17,723 answer-form openers by expected total guesses: for each opener we played our verified follow-up strategy against every modelled answer and averaged the finished game lengths. The leaders are effectively tied — any of them puts you on pace to finish in about 3 guesses.

RankEquationAvg. RemainingExpected Total Guesses
#152-34=18~33 answers3.0
#248-32=16~31 answers3.0
#352-38=14~33 answers3.0
#454-36=18~33 answers3.0
#562-43=19~33 answers3.0

Guides disagree about the “best” opener because they measure different things. Character-frequency picks and one-step information scores optimise the first split and hope the rest works out; our ranking simulates complete games instead. The difference shows in the data: 48-32=16 leaves the fewest answers after guess one (~31), yet finishes games slightly later than 52-34=18 (~33 left) — a slightly bigger pool that keeps splitting cleanly beats a smaller one that doesn’t.

The top openers all follow one recipe: two-digit minus (or plus) two-digit equals two-digit, eight distinct characters drawn from the common digits, and the equals sign in its most common position. 78 of the top 100 are subtractions — subtraction appears in 44.1% of modelled answers, more than any other operator.

Dive deeper: the full opener rankings and methodology — the complete table, how the ranking works, and why two-operator and division openers rank lower.

Digit Statistics#

Not all digits appear equally. Each bar counts how many of the 17,723 modelled answers contain the digit at least once:

0
4,464 · 25.2%
1
10,768 · 60.8%
2
9,274 · 52.3%
3
8,225 · 46.4%
4
8,368 · 47.2%
5
7,678 · 43.3%
6
7,992 · 45.1%
7
7,274 · 41.0%
8
7,588 · 42.8%
9
7,198 · 40.6%
Key insight: An answer is more likely than not to contain a 1 (60.8%) — no other digit clears 53% — while 0 appears in barely a quarter of modelled answers.

Every tile in a guess is a yes/no question, and a question teaches the most when it’s close to a coin flip. 1 appears in 60.8% of answers, 2 in 52.3%, 4 in 47.2% — whichever colour comes back, roughly half the pool is gone. Practical upshot: build early guesses from 1–5, expect results that start with 1, and don’t burn an early tile on 0 — let elimination find it for free.

Dive deeper: the full digit statistics — per-digit charts, why 1 dominates the model, and how the rules starve zero.

Operator Statistics#

Subtraction dominates and division is the rarest operator — which makes a confirmed ÷ unusually informative, since so few answers contain one. Each bar counts answers containing the operator; a two-operator answer counts towards both:

Subtraction (−)
7,810 · 44.1%
Addition (+)
6,839 · 38.6%
Multiplication (×)
5,574 · 31.5%
Division (÷)
4,024 · 22.7%
51.4%
of equations use exactly one operator
48.6%
use two or more operators

Dive deeper: the full operator statistics — operator pairings and what a green or black operator really eliminates.

Where Does the Equals Sign Go?#

The equals-sign position tells you the equation’s whole shape:

Pos. 5
1,318 · 7.4%

4-character expression, 3-digit result

Pos. 6
10,515 · 59.3%

5-char expression, 2-digit result

Pos. 7
5,890 · 33.2%

6-char expression, 1-digit result

Pro tip: Position 6 is most common (59.3%): a 5-character expression and a 2-digit result. If your first guess pins down the = position, you’ve already narrowed the pool dramatically.

Dive deeper: the equals-sign position guide — what each position implies about structure and how to exploit it.

Nerdle’s Hidden Rules#

Two rules trip up more players than any others, as enforced by NerdleBuddy’s generated answer model:

Left-side lone zeros never appear in answers

Equations like 0+10-1=9 are valid guesses but never answers — the model excludes any standalone zero left of the equals sign. A result of exactly 0 is fine: 367 modelled answers end in =0.

67,346 guess forms vs 17,723 candidate answers

Nearly 4× more strings are legal to guess than can ever win. Lone-zero equations account for every one of the 49,623 modelled guess-only forms — useful probes that can never be the answer.

Dive deeper: all of Nerdle’s hidden rules — commutative wins, leading zeros, order of operations, and the guess-only pool.

Guide Topics#

Each topic is a focused page you can read in a few minutes. New to Nerdle? Start with the openers, then work down in order.

Need a next guess?

Copy the feedback from your game into the solver to see the model-recommended options.

Nerdle Solver

Today's Nerdle answer#

Strategy is for the boards you want to win yourself. When you would rather just know — or you are checking a finished board — today's Nerdle answer is published here every day, verified against Nerdle's own archive before it goes up.

Stuck but not ready to see it? The hints page narrows today's answer one step at a time and never shows the equation.

Practise Your Strategy#

Put these tips to the test with our interactive puzzle player. Get real-time hints and see how your solution compares with NerdleBuddy’s strategy.

Frequently Asked Questions#

What is the best Nerdle strategy?

Open with a ranked equation, spend the second guess on the digits and operators the first one never tested, and read a purple tile as a position ruled out rather than a character removed.

How long does it take to get better at Nerdle?

Most of the improvement comes from two habits — one strong fixed opener and a planned second guess — and both are on this page.

Does this guide spoil today's Nerdle answer?

No — nothing on this page shows an answer. Today's Nerdle answer has its own page, published once the puzzle is verified, and the spoiler-free hints sit between the two.