Why There Is No Single Best Second Guess#
This guide follows our decision tree from its fixed first guess, 52-34=18, the first-ranked starter in our current four-decimal real-rules artifact (see the strategy guide for the full ranking). But the best second guess depends entirely on the colors you get back. Across all 17,723 modelled answer forms, 52-34=18 produces 1,703 distinct feedback patterns, and each unsolved branch gets a model-ranked reply.
That’s good news. Once the feedback is known, the opener leaves about 33.05 possible answer forms on average. That average is weighted by how often each pattern occurs, since large feedback buckets are more likely to be the one you see. Walking this saved response table and stopping as soon as a commutative arrangement wins, games finish in 3.0 guesses on average and the strategy never needs more than 5 — comfortably inside Nerdle’s six.
How to Read the Patterns#
Each row below shows the opener colored with one feedback pattern. Match it to what you see on your board: green means right character in the right spot, purple means wrong spot, black means not in the answer. (New to the colors? Start with how to play Nerdle.)
Some model-recommended second guesses will look strange — equations like 2*14/4=7 that feel like odd choices. They’re probe guesses: the tree isn’t trying to be right on guess two, it’s trying to slice the remaining candidates so thin that guess three is nearly automatic.
Recommended Second Guesses for the Most Common Patterns#
The 12 most frequent feedback patterns after opening with 52-34=18, and the reply our decision tree plays for each. With 1,703 total branches no table can cover every game — for your exact position, the solver walks the full tree.
The Principles Behind a Good Second Guess#
Can’t memorize a lookup table? The tree’s choices follow patterns you can apply yourself:
Use fresh characters
Almost every model-recommended second guess introduces digits the opener didn’t test. Repeating a black character wastes a slot that could be gathering information.
Relocate every purple
Purples are guaranteed content in unknown positions. Move any purple you reuse to a new slot; a deliberate probe may leave one out temporarily to test more unknowns.
Don’t rush to "win"
A guess that merely could be right usually tests less than a probe built to split the field. The tree happily plays equations it knows are wrong when they buy more information.
Pin the equals sign
If = came back purple, the second guess almost always tries it in a different legal position (5, 6, or 7). Locking the equation’s shape collapses the field fast.
Frequently Asked Questions#
What is the best second guess in Nerdle?
There is no single best second guess — it depends on the feedback from your opener. After 52-34=18, there are 1,703 possible feedback patterns, and every unsolved branch has a reply in NerdleBuddy's verified tree. For the most common pattern, that reply is 2*14/4=7.
Should my second guess reuse letters from the first?
Reuse purples in new positions and keep greens in place unless you deliberately choose a probe. Avoid re-playing black characters. NerdleBuddy's second-guess recommendations usually introduce fresh digits to gather more information.
Can every Nerdle be solved in 6 guesses?
Walking NerdleBuddy's saved response table and stopping when a commutative arrangement wins solves all 17,723 modelled answer forms in at most 5 guesses, averaging 3.0. This is a measured strategy result, not a global-optimum proof.
Is it worth guessing an equation that can't be the answer?
Often, yes. A probe that cannot win can split the remaining candidates more evenly than a possible answer. NerdleBuddy's strategy uses probes when its scoring rule prefers the information they reveal.
Analyze Your Position
Enter your guesses and colors. The solver follows its saved response table when your position matches a recorded branch, then ranks the live remaining pool whenever your play diverges from that table.